Auburn Tigers vs. Kansas State Wildcats Pick Against the Spread

#5 Auburn Tigers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) @ #20 Kansas State Wildcats (2-0, 0-2 ATS)

Line: Auburn (-9, O/U 65)

Game Time: Thursday September 18, 2014 7:30pm EST on ESPN

Thursday night football is usually a good chance for MAC, Mountain West or your “mid-major” teams to showcase their school and football teams.  However, this Thursday is different as we are treated to a SEC vs Big 12 show down.  Tomorrow night we see the defending SEC Champion, and national runner up, #5 Auburn Tigers travel to Manhattan, Kansas to take on #20 Kansas State.

Auburn covered and won both games to start the season vs Arkansas and San Jose State.  Kansas State beat Stephen F. Austin with ease but needed to comeback two weeks ago vs Iowa State to pull out the victory.  Both teams are coming off an early season bye so they will be well rested.

Auburn has rushed for over 300 yards in both games to start the season and rank 7th in rushing.  Kansas State will need to contain the running game to pull out a victory Thursday night.

Kansas State has lost 6 straight games playing against top 25 non-conference opponents.  Auburn has won all 3 match ups vs Kansas State including a 23-13 win in 2007, their last game.

Auburn ATS Trends

Auburn is 4-0 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record

Auburn is 11-0 ATS last 11 games following an ATS win

Auburn is 5-0 last 5 non-conference games

Auburn is 10-1 last 11 games vs a team with a winning record

Kansas State ATS Trends

Kansas State is 4-0 ATS last 4 games following a BYE

Kansas State is 18-7-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record

Kansas State is 4-9 ATS last 13 games at home vs a team with a winning record

Kansas State is 2-5 ATS last 7 non-conference games

Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games

When you study the ATS betting trends in depth you clearly get the idea that Auburn is the better team ATS.  Bill Snyder and Kansas State are great at controlling the clock and time of possession by slowing down the play and running the ball effectively.  Kansas State has a solid defense and they will need to make stops against QB Nick Marshall and the Auburn rushing attack.  The trends and line are begging you to take Auburn but this has the makings of a close Thursday night game.

Pick: Kansas State (+9)

Take the home dog in this matchup.  Auburn should win this game but a touchdown spread is more like it, if not less.  Kansas State should play off the home crowd and if their defense can keep them in the game, it should play close.

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply